strategic studies 結果共9筆

2024年總統與立委選舉後，國民黨繼黨主席朱立倫2月率團出訪新加坡，副主席夏立言、國際事務部黃介正主任接受美國重要智庫「戰略與國際研究中心」（Center for Strategic andInternational Studies, CSIS）邀請，將出席「美日台三邊二軌兵推」 （US-Japan-Taiwan Track 2 trilateral tabletop exercises） 。

Experts from the U.S. and Taiwan predict a high likelihood of a Taiwan Strait crisis in 2024, emphasizing the new government and U.S. presidential election as crucial factors. Military capabilities and international relations play key roles in shaping the future of the region.

A survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests that a crisis similar to the large-scale military exercises China conducted near Taiwan in 1995-96 is likely to occur in 2024. The survey, conducted in late 2023, revealed that about 67% of American and 57% of Taiwanese scholars anticipate such a crisis. However, experts believe that China is currently unable to successfully invade Taiwan. Instead, they suggest that China may pursue actions of isolation or blockade against Taiwan within the next five years. The survey defines a ＂Taiwan Strait crisis＂ as a significant escalation of tensions accompanied by major People’s Liberation Army exercises aimed at intimidating Taiwan and reaffirming China’s threats of force. Factors contributing to these views include China’s reaction to Taiwan’s election results, negative assessments of U.S.-China relations, and the belief that the November meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping did not sufficiently stabilize relations to reduce the potential for a crisis.

A survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) reveals that only 26% of U.S. experts and 17% of Taiwanese experts believe that China has the military capability to carry out a ＂joint island landing operation＂ within the next five years. The study, which surveyed 52 U.S. experts and 35 Taiwanese experts, found that most agreed that China lacks the ability to effectively implement a joint maritime, land, and air invasion of Taiwan. However, 90% of U.S. experts and 62% of Taiwanese experts believe that China could isolate or blockade Taiwan in the next five years, primarily as a commercial action. This action would be conducted by China’s Coast Guard or other law enforcement vessels, not its military. Additionally, 80% of U.S. experts and 60% of Taiwanese experts believe that China could implement a blockade of Taiwan, which would involve both commercial and military activities led by China’s military. Taiwanese experts generally had a more conservative viewpoint on China’s execution abilities compared to their American counterparts when it came to perceived threats from mainland China.

A potential war between the United States and Beijing over Taiwan could result in crippling losses for both sides, warns the Stimson Center. The article, titled ＂Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?＂ highlights that a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan might trigger ground and aerial assaults from Beijing. A military simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies showed that a joint defense effort from the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan could repel a Chinese invasion but at devastating costs, including the loss of ships, aircraft, and troops. The war would also impact the U.S.’s global standing, hurt Taiwan’s economy, and potentially destabilize the Chinese Communist Party’s rule. China’s aerial superiority, with a ratio of 1900 to Taiwan’s 300, could result in airstrikes, missile and cyber attacks aimed at decimating Taiwan’s defenses and critical infrastructure. Simulations predict a rapid escalation of war, including potential bombing of U.S. military bases and a reciprocal U.S. attack on Chinese bases and navy. Any concrete steps taken towards official independence by Taiwan could serve as a catalyst prompting Beijing’s decision for forceful unification.

美國華盛頓的獨立智庫「戰略與國際研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies，CSIS）」進行戰爭推演後稱，倘若中國於2026年入侵台灣，將導致中國、台灣和日軍軍隊傷亡數千人，且北京政府不太可能取得勝利；但美國將會受到重創，台灣得不到物資援助，可能會被摧毀。

Speaking at the 7th annual “China’s Power: Up for Debate” on Thursday (Nov. 17) organized by the Center For Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), U.S. officials, scholars, and commentators discussed the core issues underpinning the nature of Chinese power that could lead to a major crisis or conflict in the next year or two.

Global experts shared their perspective and insight on mainland China’s policies and current stance in the world at the China Power annual conference held by the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

針對CSIS(Center for Strategic & International Studies)亞洲區資深顧問Bonnie Glaser於Twitter上指稱「TVBS報導《CSIS於2016年10月至2017年9月，接受台灣政府50萬美金以上的捐贈》一事，為假新聞。」TVBS對此嚴正駁斥，基於新聞事實查證原則，TVBS新聞內容，完整引述CSIS網站提供之公開資訊，該網站載明「from the 2017 fiscal year (October 1, 2016-September 30, 2017) who gave generous gifts of $5,000 or more.」台灣政府名列其中，位在「Contributions $500,000 and up」之名單內。因此，TVBS特別聲明本則新聞的內容並無杜撰、造假，更無任何錯誤。